April 14, 2004
To Our Valued Customers:
I feel it is time to bring you
up to date as to what has been and for the foreseeable
future will continue to occur in the stainless steel
and high alloy PVF market. If you are a purchaser
of carbon steel flat rolled and PVF, what I am about
to tell you is miniscule compared to what you are
experiencing.
We in the United States are finding
business fairly brisk, but a lot of the business
we and you are experiencing will eventually end
up in the Middle East or better yet in Southeast
Asia. Business in Europe is at best flat, the main
reason for this is that the euro is so strong against
the dollar and also against Asian currencies that
are linked to the dollar.
A goodly number of our customers
that have been doing business with us for years
and years know that I travel at least once a year
to Southeast Asia to make sure that the pipe, fittings
and flanges that we bring into this country meet
all United States specifications in everyway. I
spent the last two weeks of February visiting Japan,
Korea, China, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand. The
report I bring back to you from these countries
is that their economies in the steel and stainless
area are booming. It’s booming because every
pound of stainless or steel that these countries
can produce is being shipped to China.
Demand in China for everything
is incredibly strong. An example of what I am talking
about was in The Wall Street Journal while I was
traveling. In 2003, China consumed 60% of the world’s
concrete and 35% of the world’s steel. To
say the least, these are incredible numbers. There’s
a saying in Shanghais, “if you leave the city
for one week, when you come back the skyline would
have completely changed.” China is like a
vacuum, it’s just sucking everything into
itself.
All indications are that this
will continue into 2006. As most of you are aware
China is paying a premium for scrap steel and scrap
stainless steel. They are also acquiring metals
like copper, nickel, moly and chrome. Their appetite
is so large that they can not get enough of anything.
They are causing prices to
continually go up.
Now we need to address what has
been happening to our market pricing. I will be
using the year 2002 as a basis in order to give
you a better understanding of the price increases.
I will address all of the major commodities that
we sell. The percentages I will talk about are the
percentages that apply to stainless steel, pricing
for higher alloy material will carry different percentages.
Stainless
Steel Welded Pipe & Tubing
In 2002 the domestic pipe mills
raised prices by 5% in November of that year. Pricing
for pipe was stable through the first six months
of 2003, the only thing that fluctuated were the
surcharges that our manufacturers applied to the
cost of the pipe. Then things started heating up
overseas and the nickel and moly surcharges started
escalating from June to December, surcharges more
than doubled. On January 1st of this year we experienced
a base price increase of 7%. On February 1st we
experienced another base price increase of 7%. On
March 1st we experienced another base price increase
of 6.5%. And next week we will have another
base price increase of 8%. This is a 32%
increase in the base price in 3 months.
I hope you are sitting down because
what I am going to tell you will shake you to the
bone. The surcharges for 304 stainless steel increased
2100% from January 1, 2002 to April 2004, these
same surcharges for 316 increased 2300% in the same
time frame. That my friends is a staggering number.
Above and beyond these staggering increases, deliveries
on scalp are running out to about 12-14 weeks.
Worse yet, plate is almost impossible
to get. An example is 18” x .250w 316L pipe.
Three mills regretted and one mill quoted 20 weeks
to deliver. There are extreme shortages of certain
items especially in large diameter pipe.
The above also applies to our
tubing costs, but it is not as noticeable because
we all know the price of 1/4" tubing is less
than a dollar so if the same increase applies in
pure dollar and cents it doesn’t look great.
Stainless
Steel Seamless Pipe & Tubing
As any buyer of this commodity
is acutely aware somewhere around 90% of this material
is imported from Europe or Southeast Asia. What
product is manufactured in the United States is
made from foreign hollows. The demand for seamless
pipe in this country has escalated over the last
six months because the power generation industry
is recovering rather nicely. Lead-time from our
overseas mills are now running 16-20 weeks ex-mill.
During this same period, prices have pretty
much doubled. Above and beyond the pricing
situation seamless pipe and tubing is in short supply
in this country because of a lack of inventory build
up last year.
Stainless
Steel Butt-Weld Fittings
In 2002 butt-weld fittings very
quietly increased by 10%. During 2003, prices gradually
increased by another 10%. Then in December and January
prices increased by about 27%. That represents in
total about a 50-60% increase for the price of a
fitting. Remember butt-weld fittings are made from
pipe so as pipe goes so does butt-weld fittings.
Stainless
Steel Flanges
In August 2002 flange prices increased
by 6%. Then in April 2003, flanges increased by
13.5%. Then again January 2004, flanges increased
13% for 304 and 16% for 316. Earlier this
week we were advised that next week flanges will
increase by another 10%. Here again we
have experienced an increase of about 55%. Above
and beyond this pricing, flange deliveries are very
extended with lead-time running from 12 to 16 weeks.
Flanges in the size range of 10” to 24”
are in extremely short supply and carry premium
pricing.
Stainless Steel 150# & 3000# Fittings
Pricing for this commodity stayed
flat during 2002 and half way through 2003. Then
during the middle of 2003 every order we placed
increased by between 5-8% then to finally last month
prices increased by another 10%. I was advised
this morning that in the next two weeks we will
make an announcement of another price increase.
The total increase over the last year and a half
has been about 35-40% excluding this new announcement.
Stainless
Steel Nipples
During 2002 and half of 2003 nipple
prices were flat. Late last year we experienced
a price increase of 10% and earlier this month another
15% increase went into effect. The net effect on
nipple pricing is a 25% increase. This is a puzzling
one to me because nipples are made from pipe and
the increases do not truly reflect the increases
that were experienced in stainless steel pipe.
Stainless
Steel Valves
Over the last 1-1/2 years stainless
steel valves have increased about 17% which is a
lot, but in relation to the other increases it is
not as great. I think the main reason for this is
that the pure weight of a valve in comparison to
its total selling price does not have the same proportion
as it has for pipe, fittings and flanges.
Stainless
Steel Sanitary Fittings
These prices remained relatively
stable over the last two years and again I think
it has to do with the raw material cost in proportion
to the selling price. We have been advised
by our fitting manufacturer that their prices are
going up the end of March. At this point,
we do not know what kind of increase they are planning.
I felt this information is necessary
so you can understand what has happened in the past,
what is existing and what future changes may bring.
I think it is advisable that you take this information
to your management, purchasing and estimating personnel
so they will understand our position and what is
transpiring worldwide.
We will be more than happy to review any pricing questions
you may have on an individual basis.
Sincerely,

James Bokor
President